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Fear of slowing growth drags global markets

By JOSHUA FREED and PAUL WISEMAN Associated Press

Fear is back in the market.

Investors are worried about slower economic growth in China, a gloomier outlook for U.S. corporate profits and an end to easy-money policies in the United States and Europe. They're also fretting over country-specific troubles around the world - from economic mismanagement in Argentina to political instability in Turkey.

Those fears converged this week to start a two-day rout in global markets that was capped by a 318-point drop in the Dow Jones industrial average Friday. It was the blue-chip index's worst day since last June. The Dow plunged almost 500 points over the two days.

The Dow finished down 2 percent at 15,879 Friday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 38 points, or 2.1 percent, to 1,790. The Nasdaq composite fell 90 points, or 2.2 percent, to 4,128.

As investors shunned risk, small-company stocks fell even more than the rest of the market, and bond prices rose.

Despite the sell-off, U.S. stocks remain near all-time highs after surging 30 percent last year. The S&P 500 is 3 percent below its record high of 1,848 on Jan. 15.

U.S. stocks have not endured a correction - a drop of 10 percent or more over time - since October 2011.

The turbulence coincides with a global economic shift: China and other emerging-market economies appear to be running into trouble just as the developed economies of the United States and Europe finally show signs of renewed strength nearly five years after the end of the Great Recession.

The trouble began Thursday after a January survey showed a drop in Chinese manufacturing activity. Days earlier, China reported that its economic growth last year matched 2012 for the slowest pace since 1999.

"It is interesting how even a mild tremor in China's growth causes such anxiety around the world," said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 1.9 percent Friday to close at 15,391.56; Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.2 percent to 22,450.06; and Seoul's Kospi dropped 0.4 percent to 1,940.56.

Here's a look at the forces buffeting global financial markets:

The end of easy money

Since the global financial crisis hit in 2008, the Federal Reserve has flooded markets with cash to push interest rates lower and encourage U.S. businesses and consumers to borrow and spend. But last month, as signs of growing economic strength emerged in the U.S., the Fed cut back - reducing its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion. It also said that it expected to reduce the bond-buying further "in measured steps" at upcoming meetings.

The Fed meets again Tuesday and Wednesday. Many economists expect the central bank to cut the purchases again - perhaps to $65 billion a month.

The scaling back of the Fed's easy-money policies has hit some emerging markets hard. When the Fed was pushing U.S. rates lower, emerging markets had seen an inflow of capital from investors seeking higher returns than they could get in the United States. Now investment is flowing back to America, hammering currencies in emerging markets.

Political turmoil

In some countries, concerns over the local political or financial situation have worsened the market volatility dramatically. That was most obvious in Argentina, where the peso this week suffered its sharpest fall since the country's 2002 economic collapse. The government, running short of reserves it could use to buy the currency and keep it from falling, has let the peso drop instead. The country's economic fundamentals are grim: Inflation is believed to be running at about 25 percent to 30 percent.

The peso fell 16 percent in two days, easily the worst performer among emerging markets.

Turkey's national currency, the lira, hit multiple record lows in recent weeks as investors worried about the fallout of a corruption scandal that threatens to destabilize the government. Having a stable government for the past 10 years has been one of the key ingredients in the country's economic revival.

The lira hit an all-time low of 2.33 against the dollar on Friday - from around 2 per dollar in December - despite a $3 billion-intervention by the central bank in foreign exchange markets.

China and global growth

Since the recession, the global economy has relied heavily on China and other emerging markets as the developed economies of the United States, Europe and Japan struggled.

But China's economy is decelerating. It grew 7.7 percent in October-December 2013 from a year earlier, down from the previous quarter's 7.8 percent growth. Factory output, exports and investment all weakened. On Thursday, the preliminary version of HSBC's purchasing managers' index of Chinese manufacturing fell to 49.6, the lowest reading since July's 47.7. Anything below 50 signals a contraction.

China's growth is still far stronger than the United States, Japan or Europe, but is down from the double-digit rates of the previous decade.

Many economists are troubled less by the slower growth numbers than by China's over-reliance on trade and investment instead of spending by its consumers.

"China, and the world at large, would benefit from its shift to a lower but more sustainable pattern of growth that is not so heavily dependent on investment-led growth fueled by bank credit," Cornell's Prasad said.

China's growth is slowing just as the world's rich economies begin to gain momentum.

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